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Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Ian Welsh on Alberta

Alberta’s Alienation From Canada. Ian Welsh. Nov. 5, 2019.

So, for those of you who don’t know, Alberta is sort of Canada’s Texas: it has a lot of oil, and a lot of farms.

Alberta is also the heart of the Conservative Party of Canada. Virtually all of their seats go to the Conservatives every federal election.

Many Albertans feel isolated and disrespected by Ottawa (our capital) and the East. Back in the 70s, Pierre Trudeau (our current Prime Minister’s father) made them sell oil to Canadians for less than market price and even nationalized a little bit of the market.

Since they also have a lot of money, they net give to the other provinces, what are called transfer payments.

They feel like they put in more than they get back.

There’s a lot of truth to this, of course. This isn’t Red State BS in the United States, where they get more from the Feds than they put in and whine about it.

That said, Alberta has been sitting on black gold and fucked it up.

Fucked it up.

They decided that low taxes were more important than investment. They hardly taxed the oil companies pumping the oil, even the foreign ones, even during boom times when there is no question they would pay.

So they didn’t get as much money as they should.

But then they also didn’t spend what money they had smart, on creating a post-oil future economy.

In Canada we have poor provinces. The poorest are the Maritime provinces: the ones up against the Atlantic.

Here’s a funny story: they used to be rich. A long time ago.

See, England needed lots of masts. You need good trees for masts, and the English cut them all down at home and other Europeans had either done the same or wouldn’t chop down enough of them.

Good masts were incredibly valuable. In addition, the Maritimes had the richest fisheries in the world. There are eyewitness accounts from the early days that you could literally dip a bucket into the Ocean and come up with fish.

So the Maritimes were prosperous.

Then the world moved to steam engines.

And then the Maritimes, quite deliberately and before the worst of climate change, fished the Grand Banks cods to collapse.

And now, they are poor as hell, and always getting those transfer payments.

And this is Alberta’s future.

The funny thing is that Alberta is also a big agricultural province, but, of course, since oil makes more money, they’ve gone ahead and polluted like hell, destroying vast swathes of land.

So, to summarize: did not invest enough in industries to take over when oil (a non-renewable resource) became less valuable. Did do what they could to fuck up their sustainable resource industry: farming.

Most of this is not the rest of Canada’s fault. Yeah, they would have had more money if Ottawa had given them a complete free hand, but they had plenty of money and wasted in on low taxes and tax cuts and didn’t bother to be good environmental stewards.

These decisions were made in Alberta, by Albertans, not in Ottawa.

Resource economies are always, at best, cyclical. They are always in danger of being destroyed by substitution (as is happening with hydrocarbons.) A smart jurisdiction uses that wealth to buy a future not reliant on resources.

There are lessons here for a lot of countries and regions. Canada as a whole has fucked up its economic balance over the last 20 years (a different article.) Russia is way too reliant on resources. Various US states are going to take it on the chin when hydrocarbon prices collapse, and they too have been short sighted, greedy and stupid: doing things like polluting their groundwater with fracking.

In the future water is going to be far more valuable than oil. So is good agricultural land.

And these places have gone out of their way to destroy both.

The problem with Ottawa isn’t so much that they interfered in Alberta, but that they interfered in Alberta in the wrong ways.

As for Albertan voters who always vote Conservative: you’re fools. Because they know you will always vote for them, they do nothing for you. When the Conservatives were in power for almost a decade, they sucked up to Ontario and Quebec, because they knew they needed their votes.

You? You got nothing, exactly because they know they don’t need to give you anything.

There are those in the US who might think on this lesson as well.

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