Climate Links Feb. 2020

* first published Feb. 12; updated with new additions as of Feb. 24-26 *

* It's time to say goodbye to our most ambitious climate target ever. Matt Reynolds, wired. Feb. 21, 2020.
For the last four years, avoiding 1.5 degrees of warming has been at the top of the climate agenda. But the goal is already out of reach. Where do we go next?


* The Planet Is Screwed, Says Bank That Screwed the Planet. Kate Aronoff, New Republic. Feb. 25, 2020.
A report from two economists at JP Morgan Chase pushes back against traditional economic wisdom on climate change.

* Alaska’s Marine Ecosystem Is Changing ‘Decades Too Early’ Due to Climate Crisis. Jordan Davidson, EcoWatch. Feb. 26, 2020.


Climate Change Predictions Have Suddenly Gone Catastrophic. This Is Why. Maddie Bender, Vice. Feb. 7, 2020.

The latest climate models have unexpectedly started to predict nightmarish warming scenarios. Now, scientists are scrambling to understand why, and if they can be trusted.

Ceppi and his co-authors compared models from the two most recent generations of guidelines based on climate sensitivity, a metric that describes the amount of surface warming a doubling in CO2 emissions would produce. Their study was published last month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

While the previous generation of climate models predicted on average a climate sensitivity of 3.3 Kelvin, the authors found that the most recent models average a climate sensitivity of 3.9 K. Additionally, the ranges of climate sensitivity produced by these models grew, from between 2.1 and 4.7 K to between 1.8 and 5.6 K.

Mark Zelinka, the first author of the study, said in an email that the only dramatic change between the two generations of models was how climate warming due to cloud cover had been incorporated. He explained that clouds reflect some sunlight that hits them, and as the planet warms from CO2 emissions, cloud cover will decrease. This in turn causes a positive feedback loop and further warms the climate.

Ceppi added that clouds also have their own greenhouse effects and can act as a blanket in the same way as greenhouse gases. The strength of this property depends on how high a cloud is, adding another layer of complexity that has only recently been incorporated into models.

Permafrost is thawing so fast it’s gouging holes in the Arctic. World Economic Forum. Feb. 14, 2020.

1. Abrupt melting of the permafrost layer is leading to erosion, landslides and craters in the Arctic landscape.
2. As the permafrost melts, greenhouse gases are released into the environment.
3. Current climate change forecasts may underestimate the emissions from permafrost because they only take into account gradual thawing of the ice layer.

Are economists globally understating or overstating the cost of climate change? Nassim Khadem, abc.net.au. Feb. 5, 2020.


The Challenging Arithmetic of Climate Action. Michael Spence, Project Syndicate. Feb. 12, 2020.

All strategies to mitigate climate change have distributive implications that cannot be overlooked. If left unaddressed, such implications will fuel persistent headwinds to progress on the climate change and sustainability agenda.

Stop blaming population growth for climate change. The real culprit is wealth inequality. Heather Alberro, Scroll.in. Feb. 7, 2020.
Consumption by the world’s richest 10% makes up half of the planet’s consumption-based CO₂ emissions.



The potential climate consequences of China's Belt and Roads Initiative. Jan Ellen Spiegel, Yale Climate Connections. Feb. 17, 2020.
The enormous infrastructure development effort could lock in heat-trapping greenhouse emissions for decades.


Is Your Favorite News Source Shilling for Big Oil? Amy Westervelt, The Nation. Feb. 12, 2020.
Some media companies are creating, not just running, misleading climate ads.


Existential Dread: We Need to Talk About our Feelings. James Magnus-Johnston, CASSE. Feb. 12, 2020.