Yes, Virginia, Permafrost IS Going To Release Carbon and Methane. Ian Welsh. June 25, 2021.
So, for years I’ve been saying that a great point of concern was methane/carbon release from permafrost. Every time I brought this up, I was told by someone that studies said it was unlikely.
This summer in the Russian arctic:
Feel free to take a break from reading to bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.
There is more carbon stored in permafrost that there is carbon in the atmosphere. When permafrost thaws it comes out as a combination of carbon and methane.
The greatest concern for climate change has always been “when do we hit the self-reinforcing spirals?” Put another way “when does it stop mattering if humans reduce emissions?”
The problem is that we really don’t understand climate very well: our models are crude. Almost everything is actually coming in faster than anticipated–arctic ice is clearing faster than expected, Antarctic ice is calving soon that we thought it would, glaciers are retreating faster than expected, etc, etc…
This, again, was easily predictable in the sense that for decades now consensus forecasts have always come in “under” the actual results: so the smart bet was always on the over, and that’s the bet I’ve made and shared with my readers for many years now.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT GOING TO BE STOPPED
Even if it is still possible to do, we are not going to do it: our political masters aren’t doing anything significant enough to even nudge the curves. Our populations are not voting primarily on climate change, or Sanders would be President of the US and Corbyn Prime Minister of the UK.
You must plan for climate changed based on the assumption that government will be of little help–it’s you and your friends and any other people you can find who want to prepare with you.
This means assuming breakdowns in the supply chain. It means assuming hotter weather in general BUT more variable weather also — cold waves and so on will also become more frequent. Hurricanes and other extreme weather events will continue their trend to being more common and more powerful.
Assume a marine inundation event sooner than expected: if you aren’t at least a couple feet above sea level, don’t assume you have forever do something about that — a couple decades, maybe, and extreme weather could easily cause a flood before that.
Remember that water is going to be harder and harder to get: as the glaciers go away and as there is less snow pack, rivers will be fed far less. A vast amount of groundwater has been polluted by farm runoff, fracking and other stupidity.
I also expect that oxygen concentration in the air will decline, and air quality will be worse.
This is an accelerating trend. It has moved very slowly, but it is speeding up and will continue to speed up. Think about how Covid curves have gone in incompetent countries: slow, slow, slow — VERTICAL. We’re a ways from vertical yet, but the lines for effects are no longer in “looks flat” territory.
It may be that your circumstances allow you to do little, but do what you can. And turn your efforts towards triage: saving or helping yourself and those you want to save. The political battle is lost; was lost, and until absolute catastrophe hits nothing will be done of significance.
That’s the future. Plan for it, please.
You must plan for climate changed based on the assumption that government will be of little help–it’s you and your friends and any other people you can find who want to prepare with you.
This means assuming breakdowns in the supply chain. It means assuming hotter weather in general BUT more variable weather also — cold waves and so on will also become more frequent. Hurricanes and other extreme weather events will continue their trend to being more common and more powerful.
Assume a marine inundation event sooner than expected: if you aren’t at least a couple feet above sea level, don’t assume you have forever do something about that — a couple decades, maybe, and extreme weather could easily cause a flood before that.
Remember that water is going to be harder and harder to get: as the glaciers go away and as there is less snow pack, rivers will be fed far less. A vast amount of groundwater has been polluted by farm runoff, fracking and other stupidity.
I also expect that oxygen concentration in the air will decline, and air quality will be worse.
This is an accelerating trend. It has moved very slowly, but it is speeding up and will continue to speed up. Think about how Covid curves have gone in incompetent countries: slow, slow, slow — VERTICAL. We’re a ways from vertical yet, but the lines for effects are no longer in “looks flat” territory.
It may be that your circumstances allow you to do little, but do what you can. And turn your efforts towards triage: saving or helping yourself and those you want to save. The political battle is lost; was lost, and until absolute catastrophe hits nothing will be done of significance.
That’s the future. Plan for it, please.
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