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Thursday, March 7, 2024

Assorted Musings on Collapse, pt 2

#272: “Peak almost everything”, part two. Tim Morgan, Surplus Energy Economics. March 7, 2024.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

It’s been said that “horse-sense” is the innate wisdom that prevents horses from putting bets on human beings.

I’m not a betting man myself, but we can all see the benefits that must accrue from knowing the outcome of a race before any wagers have even been placed. Those benefits can be greater still if all the mainstream pundits carry on tipping the wrong result.

This is the position that we’re now in, and my aim here is to explain, in brief, why this is.

The long-running contest between the economic orthodoxy and the energy-based alternative is ‘all over bar the shouting’ (though there will be plenty of that), and the energy argument has won.

Anyone who understands the economy as an energy system has an inside track over anyone – the majority – who still believes that economics is the study of money.

Thus understood, asset markets are partying at the end of growth. Governments, corporations and investors are planning for a future that cannot happen. The public is increasingly angry with politicians who promise what cannot possibly be delivered.

The background, at its briefest, is that conventional economics insists that the economy can be explained and understood in terms of money alone. If this were true, it would mean that there need never be any end to economic expansion.

The opponents of this orthodoxy, though they may disagree amongst themselves on many other things, share the insight that, on the contrary, ‘infinite economic growth on a finite planet’ is an impossibility, and that prosperity is a material concept, traceable to the characteristics and behaviour of energy, natural resources and the environment. 

The nature of growth

The battleground here is growth. If the orthodoxy was right, growth should be continuing but, in any meaningful sense, it is not. Momentum – the trend-line of the economy – should be rising or, at the very least, constant, but it has long been heading downwards.

Such meagre “growth” as is still being reported is cosmetic, being faked by the reckless injection of credit into the system.

If, in order to deliver one dollar, euro, yen or pound of growth, we have to create more than one dollar, euro, yen or pound of new credit, part of any reported growth is being faked. Using the narrow definition of formal debt, each dollar of global growth has, over the past twenty years, been accompanied by $3.20 of net new borrowing.

On a broader basis, including the credit assets of the NBFI (“shadow banking”) system for which data is incomplete, the ratio of credit expansion to growth is probably well in excess of 7:1.

This, of course, cannot continue in perpetuity. The end result must be default, and a loss of faith in the value of fiat money.

These divergences are illustrated in Fig. 1, from which it will be apparent that the gap between debt and GDP has widened to the point of unsustainability, with average “growth” of 3.5% over the past twenty years manufactured by borrowing at an annual average rate of 11% of GDP. The situation with regard to broader financial liabilities is even worse. ..........




I KNOW, I sound like a “crazy” person.

I’m telling you “Climate Science” is BROKEN and the Climate Apocalypse has started. I’m telling you to ignore the mainstream voices and narratives you will hear on television, social media, and the news.

I am “arrogantly” claiming that I “see” what’s happening and understand the Climate System better than almost any other commentator\analyst currently writing.

And, I am asking you to believe me.

Almost no one else agrees with my analysis.

For now.

In five years they will. They will have no choice, in five years it will be obvious I am right.

RIGHT NOW.

Listening to me, believing in my analysis, accepting the validity of what I am saying, is asking a LOT of you, my Readers. I’m telling you that it’s going to get twice as hot, twice as fast than anyone expected.

I’m telling you that the Elites fucked up “big time” and our civilization is about to Collapse.

Asking you to take me seriously is a “BIG ASK”, it’s a lot.

In my next article I am summing up where the data has taken me and what I “see”. Spoiler Alert, it’s not good and it’s going to be FAST.

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Don’t read it unless you want to know how bad it’s going to be.

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Because the consequence of ACCUMULATION is AMPLIFICATION it has been understood since 1974 that the Poles would warm up faster than the rest of the planet. They have always been our planetary “sacrifice zones”.

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Now we know, the GISS model was WRONG and STILL IS.

The Oceans hold onto HEAT about twice as efficiently as the Moderates assumed they would. About twice as much HEAT as the Moderates projected would reach the Poles, is actually what/s happening.

The Moderate Faction in Climate Science, the ones we have been listening too since the 80’s. THEY GOT EVERYTHING WRONG.

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