Ockham's Razor and JPM's Heliocentrism

William of Ockham and the Collapse of Complexity: A Razor’s Edge for the End Times

The Man Who Cut Through the Noise

In the 14th century, a Franciscan friar named William of Ockham wielded an intellectual tool so sharp it still slices through modern delusions: Ockham’s Razor. His principle—“Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity”—was a rebellion against medieval scholasticism’s tangled webs of abstraction. As the Church fractured under rival popes—each justifying their authority with layers of theological jargon—Ockham’s Razor would have cut through the pretense, like so: “If God is truly omnipotent, why does He need your bureaucracy?” (His defiance would cost him; he was excommunicated in 1328, but history would prove his blade sharper than their dogma.) Born during the chaotic aftermath of the Black Death, which wiped out a third of Europe’s population, Ockham developed his philosophy in an era when grand institutions clung to complexity while failing their people. Feudal lords enforced labyrinthine land laws to squeeze starving peasants; Ockham’s insistence on minimal assumptions would have retorted: “When the plague renders your contracts void, what survives but the simplest truth—that men must eat?” Seven centuries later, we face a parallel evasion of reality: as of April 2025, NOAA data reveals atmospheric CO₂ concentrations surged at a record-breaking rate in 2024—3.75 parts per million, the highest annual jump ever recorded. Yet the Trump administration suppressed the findings, burying them in social media posts instead of the agency’s usual press releases. Here, Ockham’s Razor cuts through the noise: the simplest truth—that we are losing the fight against climate collapse—is being obscured by institutional cowardice and bureaucratic sleight-of-hand (Environmental Integrity Project 2025; Friedman 2025).

Our current predicament reveals an even deeper irony: we now spend trillions subsidizing fossil fuels while pouring billions into “high-tech renewables” that, according to J.P. Morgan’s Heliocentrism report, have increased global solar capacity without displacing fossil fuel dependence. The renewable energy revolution has become its own kind of scholasticism—a complex theology of lithium batteries, rare earth minerals, and solar panels made in coal-fired factories. These technologies, while reducing direct emissions, simply replace one form of extraction with another:

• Cobalt mines where children work in toxic pits to power electric vehicles
• Lithium extraction that drains Andean groundwater for grid-scale batteries
• “Green” hydrogen projects that consume more electricity than they produce

Ockham would see this as the same old pattern: multiplying entities (new mines, new supply chains, new waste streams) rather than addressing the root problem—our refusal to reduce consumption. The J.P. Morgan report confirms this: despite $9 trillion spent on renewables since 2010, the renewable share of final energy consumption crawls forward at 0.3%-0.6% annually, while fossil fuels still power 80%-85% of industrial production (Cembalest 2025). The razor’s judgment is clear: no technology can sustain infinite growth on a finite planet.

The Jevons Paradox: Efficiency as a Trojan Horse

The report’s data exposes a brutal truth: the Jevons Paradox is alive and well. As solar and wind become cheaper, energy demand grows, swallowing efficiency gains. For example:

• Solar capacity doubled from 2021–2024, yet fossil fuel consumption rose in absolute terms.
• Battery storage additions (38 GW by 2027 in the U.S.) are outpaced by data center and AI energy demand, forcing utilities to add more natural gas capacity (Cembalest 2025).

This paradox undermines the core promise of renewables: that they will replace fossil fuels. Instead, they enable greater energy use, reinforcing the status quo. Ockham’s Razor demands we ask: Why layer complexity (renewables + storage + grid overhauls) when the simplest solution is to consume less?  ......................................

............................................ John Gray’s icy nihilism—his insistence that progress is a myth and collapse is inevitable—aligns somewhat with Ockham’s empiricism. But where Gray sees futility, Ockham might see clarity. The data does not demand despair; it demands adaptation. Indigenous philosophies, like the Iroquois Seventh Generation Principle, already embody this simplicity: act today with the seventh generation in mind. No need for hyperobjects or existential dread—just a direct, intergenerational contract with reality.

Modern environmental policy, by contrast, operates in a realm of abstraction. The Paris Agreement’s target of limiting warming to 1.5°C relies on speculative technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS), which has yet to be deployed at scale despite decades of research. The J.P. Morgan report mocks this as the “highest citation-to-usage ratio in the history of science,” noting that planned CCS capacity is just 2.5% of current emissions (Cembalest 2025). Ockham would dismiss such wishful thinking and focus on what we know works: reducing emissions at the source, protecting intact ecosystems, and scaling down unsustainable consumption. ...........................

....................... The madness will not end gracefully. Those profiting from complexity will fight to keep their labyrinths intact. But as the walls crack, the choice becomes stark: cling to the sinking ship of business-as-usual, or grab the razor and start cutting ropes.

In the end, Ockham’s Razor offers no false comforts—only the clarifying shock of cold steel against delusion. The truth was always simple: we were never too stupid to survive, only too clever by half.