Why The Consensus Environmental Predictions Are Wrong. Ian Welsh. Jun. 15, 2019.
So, a little bit ago I noted that with temperatures of 70 degrees in the arctic, we could expect permafrost to melt, and that would release methane. Methane is a lot stronger greenhouse gas than carbon, in the short run, and there is a lot held in arctic permafrost.
It was suggested that this was “alarmism” and the temperatures would [not] penetrate enough for the permafrost to really melt.
Yeah, about that…
One point I have made consistently now for many years is that virtually everything will happen faster than the consensus estimates. That point has been, well, consistently true.
The estimates made by organizations like the UN are always way too optimistic. Always. They are always wrong.
This is partially because they are playing politics: they’re trying to tell decision makers what they are willing to hear. It is partially because decision makers trim their estimates; and it is partially because most people, even most scientists, are shitty system thinkers.
The concept of break points and exponential growth don’t really penetrate into most people’s thinking.
The way the world works for long periods is that it’s mostly the same, and there are trends, and the trends are mostly linear. Assume the world [will] be about how it was yesterday, add or subtract the trends, and you’re done.
But when the world actually changes it changes fast. Those linear trends (which often aren’t linear, they just look like it) hit break points, and they go exponential or geometric or they just change their linearity dramatically (from a 1% change to a 3% change a year, say.)
And everything then changes, big time.
This is true for human affairs and for non-human systems (though the two are largely the same now that humanity is the elephant in the ecosystem tea shop.) So everything changes after the Great Depression and after the War. Everything changes because of the oil shocks leading to stagflation leading to Reagan/Thatcher.
There’s a status quo, with slow change, then something breaks the status quo, and BOOM.
This is how climate change is working and will work. Slow change, then a threshold is crossed and BOOM. Weeks of tornadoes. Category 6 hurricanes (5 was supposed to be the top.)
Or permafrost melts.
And the permafrost melt is happening 70 years before expected by the consensus estimate.
People suck at systems thinking, even most scientists.
The world is changing. We have the foreshocks now of changes which in a decade or two, will lead to a VERY different world. Ecologically, and socially.
This can no longer be stopped. It will not happen. (Maybe we can, once we take it seriously, make it better with geo-engineering, but that will not stop it from first happening.)
So, again, we are now in “something bad is going to happen, what are you going to do?” stage. Organizing to stop it failed. It failed. It failed. It is done. You can organize to mitigate and prepare, and you can prepare yourself.
Good luck.
So, a little bit ago I noted that with temperatures of 70 degrees in the arctic, we could expect permafrost to melt, and that would release methane. Methane is a lot stronger greenhouse gas than carbon, in the short run, and there is a lot held in arctic permafrost.
It was suggested that this was “alarmism” and the temperatures would [not] penetrate enough for the permafrost to really melt.
Yeah, about that…
Researchers also recorded thawing at depths not expected until air temperatures rose to levels that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted it would reach in 2090.
So…70 years early. Swell.
https://t.co/9sMxdOqHRn
— Lori Freshwater(@loufreshwater) June 15, 2019
One point I have made consistently now for many years is that virtually everything will happen faster than the consensus estimates. That point has been, well, consistently true.
The estimates made by organizations like the UN are always way too optimistic. Always. They are always wrong.
This is partially because they are playing politics: they’re trying to tell decision makers what they are willing to hear. It is partially because decision makers trim their estimates; and it is partially because most people, even most scientists, are shitty system thinkers.
(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)
The concept of break points and exponential growth don’t really penetrate into most people’s thinking.
The way the world works for long periods is that it’s mostly the same, and there are trends, and the trends are mostly linear. Assume the world [will] be about how it was yesterday, add or subtract the trends, and you’re done.
But when the world actually changes it changes fast. Those linear trends (which often aren’t linear, they just look like it) hit break points, and they go exponential or geometric or they just change their linearity dramatically (from a 1% change to a 3% change a year, say.)
And everything then changes, big time.
This is true for human affairs and for non-human systems (though the two are largely the same now that humanity is the elephant in the ecosystem tea shop.) So everything changes after the Great Depression and after the War. Everything changes because of the oil shocks leading to stagflation leading to Reagan/Thatcher.
There’s a status quo, with slow change, then something breaks the status quo, and BOOM.
This is how climate change is working and will work. Slow change, then a threshold is crossed and BOOM. Weeks of tornadoes. Category 6 hurricanes (5 was supposed to be the top.)
Or permafrost melts.
And the permafrost melt is happening 70 years before expected by the consensus estimate.
People suck at systems thinking, even most scientists.
The world is changing. We have the foreshocks now of changes which in a decade or two, will lead to a VERY different world. Ecologically, and socially.
This can no longer be stopped. It will not happen. (Maybe we can, once we take it seriously, make it better with geo-engineering, but that will not stop it from first happening.)
So, again, we are now in “something bad is going to happen, what are you going to do?” stage. Organizing to stop it failed. It failed. It failed. It is done. You can organize to mitigate and prepare, and you can prepare yourself.
Good luck.
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