I was asked by Bob Berwyn of Inside Climate News for my thoughts on James Hansen and colleagues’ recent paper Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed? Bob’s article is available at: New research led by James Hansen …
For those interested, a slightly modified version of my full quote is copied below:
Even with robust data, scientists can—and regularly do—arrive at slightly different conclusions. The differences often stem from the assumptions they choose to make, both explicitly and implicitly, as well as how they interpret incomplete or competing datasets. This is the essence of scientific inquiry: through open discussion and debate our understanding improves. For those who critically engage with science, additional factors such as risks and consequences come into play, especially on complex issues like climate change.
In this context, the policy process has abdicated its responsibilities, opting instead for short-term acquiescence with business as usual, rather than offering strong, transparent and cogent leadership. After decades of half-truths, delusion, and outright lies from those in positions of power—and often from their advisors as well—we now find ourselves facing severe risks of disastrous outcomes. Whether we align with the more conservative forecasts of the IPCC or the more challenging warnings of Jim Hansen, the policy implications are strikingly similar. We are rapidly blasting through the 1.5°C commitment, and even staying “well below 2°C” now demands global emission cuts of around 7% annually,☨ starting this year—a rate nearly 2 percentage points higher than we saw during the most stringent COVID lockdowns, and that was for just one year
From a policy perspective, and certainly from the viewpoint of anyone concerned about their family, community, or the future of humanity, the science in 2025 is unambiguous. Without abandoning failed incremental green policies in favour of swift, deep, and transformative emission reductions, we face a future fraught with dire consequences if the IPCC is correct, or catastrophic outcomes if Jim Hansen’s analysis proves accurate. His latest findings only underscore the shameful failure of many to engage honestly with physical reality and call for the radical, if not revolutionary, shifts now required if we’re to deliver on even a weak interpretation of Paris. We are not sleepwalking into the apocalypse—we’re charging toward it with full awareness of what’s at stake. Even more damning, we can already see the devastating effects of our actions tearing apart the livelihoods—and even the lives—of vulnerable, often poor, low-emitting communities, far from the high-emitting areas where we live, and frequently comprised of people of colour. These communities, along with our own children in the near future, are the canaries in the coal mine—and yet, we appear willing to sacrifice them without ever learning from their suffering.
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